New Climate Change Concerns are Real

Worry — who,  us?  Americans seem immune to action on issues of real concern, like climate change.  It seems like some people are more prone to believe the false things they hear (especially things about Obama and the scary things he might do) just because it’s almost more fun to worry about them.  It makes more sense to be concerned about things that are real and truly threaten us.  Maybe  the lack of concern about climate change (and the ongoing debate about it) is because people think claims about global warming are coming from the government — a government they don’t trust. But that’s not the case.  Climate change warnings are not coming from governments, they are coming from scientists, and that’s why we need to pay attention. Below are three stories (out of many) that we need to pay close attention to.

The first story of concern is new today, and about melting in the Antarctic peninsula.

Climate change melting southern Antarctic Peninsula ice shelves

The US Geological Survey (USGS) has found that every ice front in the southern part of the Antarctic Peninsula—the coldest part—has been retreating overall for the past sixty years with the greatest changes visible since 1990.

“This research is part of a larger ongoing USGS project that is for the first time studying the entire Antarctic coastline in detail, and this is important because the Antarctic ice sheet contains 91 percent of Earth’s glacier ice,” said USGS scientist Jane Ferrigno. “The loss of ice shelves is evidence of the effects of global warming. We need to be alert and continually understand and observe how our climate system is changing.”

The melting of ice shelves won’t directly lead to sea level rise, since ice shelves already rest in the ocean. However, the loss of the shelves will allow melt from the terrestrial Antarctic ice sheet to reach the ocean and eventually raise sea levels threatening islands, low-lying areas, and coastal communities and cities. If all the land-based ice in Antarctica melted, researchers estimate that sea-levels would rise by over 213-240 feet (60-73 meters).

That’s a bit serious, to say the least!  See the graphic here to see where this peninsula is.

Evidence of climate change is all around us.  The second story of concern is about runaway climate change and how methane is contributing to it.  How much time do we have left before it’s too late to stop the methane leakage?  No one knows for sure, but the signs are not good as the permafrost melting is continuing and there are measurable increases in atmospheric methane.   Scientists say that methane is leaking to the point where we might see runaway methane, leading to runaway climate change sooner than previously thought.

Methane in the atmosphere: The recent rise

Many climate scientists think that frozen Arctic tundra. . .  is a ticking time bomb in terms of global warming, because it holds vast amounts of methane, an immensely potent greenhouse gas. Over thousands of years the methane has accumulated under the ground at northern latitudes all around the world, and has effectively been taken out of circulation by the permafrost acting as an impermeable lid. But as the permafrost begins to melt in rising temperatures, the lid may open – with potentially catastrophic results.

See below for more on this story.  In addition, there is a 3rd  story about what we are planning to do to mitigate climate change, and how current plans of what countries must do are far from adequate.  This is because countries are all working in isolation from each other, according to Dr Sebastian Carney,  who presented this idea at the AAAS annual conference on Feb. 21st.

Dr. Carney found that, “Policy makers in Europe and United States are markedly underestimating the changes needed to mitigate CO₂ emission required to prevent dangerous climate change because they work in ‘silos’, according to pioneering research.”

First, the methane problem.

Methane levels may see ‘runaway’ rise, scientists warn

A rapid acceleration may have begun in levels of a gas far more harmful than CO2

Feb. 22 — Atmospheric levels of methane, the greenhouse gas which is much more powerful than carbon dioxide, have risen significantly for the last three years running, scientists disclosed – leading to fears that a major global-warming “feedback” is beginning to kick in.

For some time there has been concern that the vast amounts of methane, or “natural gas”, locked up in the frozen tundra of the Arctic could be released as the permafrost is melted by global warming. This would give a huge further impetus to climate change, an effect sometimes referred to as “the methane time bomb”.

This is because methane (CH4) is even more effective at retaining the Sun’s heat in the atmosphere than CO2, the main focus of international climate concern for the last two decades. Over a relatively short period, such as 20 years, CH4 has a global warming potential more than 60 times as powerful as CO2, although it decays more quickly.

Now comes the first news that levels of methane in the atmosphere, which began rising in 2007 when an unprecedented heatwave in the Arctic caused a record shrinking of the sea ice, have continued to rise significantly through 2008 and 2009.

Although researchers cannot yet be certain, and there may be non-threatening explanations, there is a fear that rising temperatures may have started to activate the positive feedback mechanism. This would see higher atmospheric levels of the gas producing more warming, which in turn would release more methane, which would produce even further warming, and so on into an uncontrollable “runaway” warming effect. This is believed to have happened at the end of the last Ice Age, causing a very rapid temperature rise in a matter of decades.

The new figures will be revealed this morning at a major two-day conference on greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, taking place at the Royal Society in London. They will be disclosed in a presentation by Professor Euan Nisbet, of Royal Holloway College of the University of London, and Dr Ed Dlugokencky of the Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, which is run by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The third story on how countries are misjudging what must be done is equally frightening.  Why can’t we get a grip on this? Most governments have equivalents of the EPA of some type, or at least science advisers.

Governments ‘misjudging’ scale of CO2 emissions

Dr Sebastian Carney, from The University of Manchester, discovered that the lack of communication between government departments, NGOs and other authorities has resulted in significant differences over who is responsible for what.

He will describe his work at the prestigious 2010 American Association for the Advancement of Science Annual Meeting on 21 February in San Diego.

Using special computer software he developed at The University of Manchester, Dr Carney has worked with authorities in England, Scotland and California to troubleshoot the way they calculate emissions reductions.

The ‘scenario sessions’ bring together national and local politicians, council officers, policy makers and NGOs – among others – to discuss their approaches to emissions.

“When it becomes evident that policy makers, and energy planners are vastly underestimating the scale of the problem, the universal reaction is one of shock.

“Shock” is anything but what most Americans are feeling about climate change. They have too many other economic shocks to get over at the moment, and our government is too involved in waging wars to help people here. When the people here are busy worrying every single day about how to make ends meet if they lose their jobs (or their house) they don’t have a lot of worry left for climate change.

Yet these stories show us that action on climate change is needed now, not later. We have no time to lose, but real emergency type action still seems far away.  The EPA is slow paced and Congress is even slower. Without the public demanding action, they will continue to act slowly.  Activist action is needed!