The following is a good analysis of Obama’s relatively new climate action plan. Yes, his plan sounds realistic, but that doesn’t mean it goes nearly far enough for my comfort level.
Sometimes I even wonder how much to tell people about what I know about climate change. Most people think things are still fixable and that we have plenty of time, and I don’t know if telling people something that sounds hopeless (like I feel every time I read serious writing about it) will have any good results. Hopeless people are pretty useless. Maybe for now I’ll just post things other people have written . . . because generally, other people are more optimistic than I am about global warming.
There’s not a lot to be optimistic about though, mainly because no government on earth right now is doing enough to try to stop warming. Our government isn’t really doing anything. Hopefully the U.S. election result (if it’s the right one) will give work on climate change a kick in the backside.
In an article I will link to at the bottom of this talks about methane “chimneys” that could come up from the melting permafrost on the deep ocean floor, and scientists think these are flammable and might cause giant ocean fireballs. Wouldn’t that be a terrifying sight! When I was in Flores, Guatemala in 2007, I was told by a bus driver that Lake Peten Itza catches on fire every few years, kills all the fish, and then everything goes back to normal. Then a few years later, it happens again. He said it was happening more frequently lately, every year. I thought he was making it up, but why would he have been? It sounds like this lake was releasing methane and it was catching on fire, killing all the fish and the whole process was escalating, probably due to climate change. If this will be happening in the ocean, scientists think it might kill 95% of all life in the oceans.
That would be catestrophic on many levels, and release even more greenhouse gas into the air, since methane is even worse than C02. The biggest problem with climate change is that effects of it make the situation worse, creating a loop that feeds on itself and causes a runaway effect. This is what is coming and depending on who you believe, we have from 0-4 years to turn things around. That means the next president of this country really does matter. That has also led me to believe that this world-wide economic crisis is an opportunity. It might be our best chance to build a climate-change-fighting economy for every country now, from the starting point of zero while everything is collapsing around us. We can wait a few months to do that, after we get a new president in office that will actually do something about the problem. For the last 8 years we have had oil men running the U.S. That is about to change, and it appears that 2009 will be our best and possibly last chance to throw everything we have at climate change.
No scientist knows exactly how much time we have to prevent runaway warming, but all agree we have very little. If any. We might actually be in “survival” mode before a good plan ever gets moving, so it matters who you are supporting for president this November. Here is an analysis of Obama’s plan. It’s from Climate Progress.
Obama’s excellent energy and climate plan – Presidential candidate Barack Obama has released his energy and climate plan — and it is first-rate (PDF here ). The plan will:
* Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the level recommended by top scientists to avoid calamitous impacts. [not entirely true] [Obama will require carbon emissions to be “80 percent below 1990 levels by 2050” through cap & trade (with 100% allowance auction!) starting with a mandate “of reducing emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.”]
* Invest $150 billion over the next ten years to develop and deploy climate friendly energy supplies, protect our existing manufacturing base and create millions of new jobs.
* Dramatically improve energy efficiency to reduce energy intensity of our economy by 50 percent by 2030.
* Reduce our dependence on foreign oil and reduce oil consumption overall by at least 35 percent, or 10 million barrels of oil, by 2030
* Make the U.S. a leader in the global effort to combat climate change by leading a new international global warming partnership. [good luck with that]
I wonder if Shellenberger & Nordhaus endorse it — they get their huge clean energy fund, but they have to swallow all those mandates and high carbon prices they claim are politically untenable. Obama definitely understands that you need smart regulations and government mandates to get clean energy technologies into the marketplace — and to stop traditional coal plants from being built. His plan includes:
* Establish a National Low Carbon Fuel Standard. [the only thing that will be adequate is zero....]
* Require 25 Percent of Electricity to Come from Renewable Sources by 2025. [not soon enough]
* Flip Incentives to Energy Utilities … by ensuring companies get increased profits for improving energy efficiency, rather than higher energy consumption.
* Implement legislation that phases out traditional incandescent light bulbs by 2014.
* Double fuel economy standards within 18 years
* Mandate All New Vehicles are Flexible Fuel Vehicles
* Increase Renewable Fuel Standard
* Obama will use whatever policy tools are necessary, including standards that ban new traditional coal facilities, to ensure that we move quickly to commercialize and deploy low carbon coal technology.
Kudos to Obama and his staff — they have set the bar high for candidate energy and climate plans. Gristmill’s take on this is here.”
This plan doesn’t go far enough, but I’m guessing Obama knows that and will surprise us all by how determined he is to seriously deal with this. If not, we’re in deep trouble. These changes have to occur within the next few years.
For McCain’s climate plan, read this.
Here is a long, sci-fi combined with science explanation for much of the current thinking on climate change. “Science Fiction and the End of the World.” If you want even more science, read Climate Code Red’s report. If you really want to read something blunt, read James Hansen, but I warn you, he’s a little pessimistic. Then again, he knows what is going on and that no one is reacting adequately, so that’s why he’s pessimistic. You can download the PDF: “Target Atmospheric C02″ from this website. The Pdf is in the right-hand column.
In addition, read this excerpt from Climate Code Red that talks about a sustainable economy and how politics affect action on climate change.
[tags]C02,climate change,election,fossil fuels,global warming,James Hansen,methane,methane chimney,new climate change plan,Obama,Obama for president,scientists,tipping point[/tags]
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